Red Bull's 2025 driver candidates ranked from most to least likely
As the style of Newey's cars is to build the fastest car possible that the drivers have to try and master, which is what Max Verstappen has done well, the same cannot be said for the other side of the garage.
With the likes of Gasly and Albon getting dropped due to subpar results and Sergio Perez is currently filling in the seat, but with a difficult year in 2023 and looking to be far off the pace of Verstappen with no signs of closing in, will he be shown the door after 2024 for another driver?
Here are the candidates for the seat, inclusive of Perez, ranked from most likely to an outside chance:
Sergio Perez - Very Likely
Despite a difficult 2023, Checo has actually had a decent start to 2024.
He is not expected to be up there with Max or beat him, but more to come in 2nd place regularly and help Red Bull in the constructors' should the likes of Ferrari or McLaren catch up to them on pace.
He has done exactly that, finishing in 2nd in every race bar one which was a tricky race in Australia in which he suffered a grid penalty and damage to his car which made it difficult to fight at the top.
If he keeps this form up, Red Bull will undoubtedly keep Checo as they do not want to take the risk of having a new driver that could maybe upset Max and tilt the morale of the team as Checo has maintained a rather healthy relationship with Red Bull's golden boy.
However, they have to wait for the rest of the season to unfold as Checo has always shown to have strong starts to the season but will always fall back behind and struggle as the Milton Keynes based team continue to develop their car and make it all the more trickier to drive.
Carlos Sainz - Likely
Carlos Sainz has surprisingly become a free agent on the driver market. Before the season started, it was announced that Sainz was going to leave Ferrari at the end of 2024 to make way for Lewis Hamilton.
With his performances this season, it seems that Ferrari may start to regret making the Spaniard leave this season as he looks to be the best driver on the grid that does not go by the name of Max Verstappen.
A podium in every race he has started and a win in an Australia race that saw Verstappen drop out of the race due to a rear brake issue, but he did overtake the Dutchman on pace. The only thing keeping Sainz behind was suffering from appendicitis at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix which has cost him ground in the championship, as a normal result could see him be second in the standings behind only Verstappen.
The positive of being dropped early on in the season is that Sainz has time to show other teams what he can do and that there are a myriad of options available for Sainz to consider. The likes of Mercedes are reportedly already chasing him for his signature to replace the man who caused him to be in this dilemma in the first place.
Rumours have also circulated that Sainz could be a potential candidate to replace Sergio Perez, as Sainz may be seen as a strong and safe option to partner Verstappen and maybe even give him trouble.
The only thing holding Red Bull back is that they need to take their time throughout the season and assess their options. With a big question mark hanging over whether Perez can keep up his good form and Mercedes or Sauber attempting to get Sainz as quickly as possible, Red Bull could lose out on Sainz as he may want to find a seat early in order to not risk losing out on a seat should Perez pick up his performances and secure another season at Milton Keynes.
Though if Sainz opts not to downgrade to either Mercedes or Sauber and stay at the top, Red Bull is definitely the option for him to go for which makes him a strong contender and threat for the second seat.
Yuki Tsunoda - Outside Chance
Yuki Tsunoda has often been a driver who is just a part of the Red Bull program but never seriously considered as an option to be moved up to the senior team.
Two rather subpar years where he failed to come close to his team-mate Gasly and often drowned in the bottom half of the field, 2023 saw a step up for Yuki as he drove his experienced team-mate Nyck de Vries out of F1 due to his strong performances and could outpace Daniel Ricciardo though it could be excused that the Aussie was injured.
2024 is also looking to be amazing for Tsunoda as he is the clear cut best of the drivers who aren't in the top five teams. Strong points in Australia as well as being in a safe 10th position ahead of the drivers in the back of the pack could send a message to Red Bull saying that he is capable of being quick and should he continue to stand out for the rest of the season, they might have to consider him. However, it also means that he has to convincingly show that he is a better driver than Sainz and Perez, and with the VCARB not being too quick, it may be hard to showcase that.
Daniel Ricciardo - Likely/Outside Chance
Daniel Ricciardo is the driver who caused this whole second driver mess, and he may look to end it.
In spite of Red Bull not wanting to let him go, he still took a gamble and left the team to join Renault in 2019. A move that he would come to regret as his career went on a downward spiral, leaving Renault for McLaren in 2021 proved to be his worst mistake as he often times came short of Lando Norris and even got lapped by the young Brit on merit during races. Another poor showing in 2022 meant that McLaren would drop him and leave him without a drive for 2023. His saving grace being that Nyck de Vries underperformed and he would be welcomed back into Red Bull through Alpha Tauri.
Daniel had a strong showing in the second half of 2023, with his most notable race being qualifying in 4th in Mexico, ahead of home hero Perez. Finishing a strong 7th in the race to show that he is back and has what it takes to perform should he feel comfortable with the car and that he had it all to show in 2024 once his wrist fully heals, making him a strong candidate for the Red Bull seat.
However, 2024 seems to be dwindling his chances of having a seat in Red Bull or Formula 1 as a whole. Underwhelming results in the first four rounds, convincingly getting beaten by Tsunoda each round is not a good sign and reports have circulated that he has only a few races left to prove himself to not be in Red Bull, but just to stay in the seat that he inherited from an already underperforming driver.
Though, Red Bull may have a bit of mercy on him as he can show that he is able to be the driver he once was occasionally but if he continues this form, he may not be in F1 and may end up losing his seat to...
Liam Lawson - Not Likely
Liam Lawson is the Red Bull programme's hottest prospect at the moment. Being the vice-champion of Formula 2, DTM and Super Formula is no easy feat, but it only means that he proves that he is able to adapt to any car that's given to him, which is what Red Bull need.
Adaptability also showed when he was quickly shoved into the Alpha Tauri in the midst of the 2023 season due to Daniel Ricciardo's wrist injury and he took no time to impress. Knocking out Max Verstappen out of Q2 in Singapore before going on to finish in the points and managing to stay on the pace of Yuki Tsunoda, who we know is wiping his team-mates at the moment, Liam is more than certainly getting a seat for 2025. But where?
The most likely choice would be for him to go to RB to replace either Ricciardo or Tsunoda as Christian Horner has basically assured him that, but with teams such as Mercedes looking to take huge gambles of putting young rookies into their seat such as Kimi Antonelli with the added bonus of Liam proving himself at multiple categories of motorsport with brilliant pace, is he an option for Red Bull to consider for 2025?
Lando Norris - Not Happening
Lando Norris is one of the most wanted properties in Formula 1 right now. With Christian Horner having made multiple moves to sway the Brit away from McLaren, Norris is adamant on staying with the team that supported him throughout his junior career and brought him into F1 in the first place.
If McLaren don't give Norris a race-winning car sooner or later, he may start considering switching to Red Bull and if that happens, Christian Horner would more than welcome him into the team at any cost as he seems to have an infatuation with him as seen in interviews from Drive to Survive where he is seen praising Norris endlessly.
For now though, it looks like Norris is comfortable in McLaren and does not seem to be wanting to move away in the near, or distant, future.
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